SCIENTISTS SAY:
The SALMON CRISIS is so SERIOUS that the ONLY WAY to SAVE COHO RUNS from EXTINCTION is to STOP CATCHING COHO NOW!
The latest West Coast studies by top DFO scientists provide shocking evidence of a decline in coho stocks that will lead to widespread extinctions unless all coho fishing stops...now!
The reports by members of the Pacific Stock Assessment Review Committee have given the Federal Fisheries Minister and his senior advisers all the expert testimony they need to substantiate a total 1998 coho fishing ban.
This scientific confirmation of conservationists' worst fears reads like a horror story. From the Thompson River to the Upper Skeena, through Georgia Strait and the mid-coast waters, the coho's survival is in jeopardy.
"The Steering Committee advises the application of extreme caution in applying forecasts of coho abundance in 1998," says the summary. "Recent trends in marine survival have been below forecasts and marine conditions during 1997 were exceptionally poor...
"...scientific confirmation of conservationists' worst fears...the coho's survival is in jeopardy."
"The Upper Skeena and Thompson River coho stock aggregates are extremely depressed, will continue to decline (even) in the absence of any fishing mortality under current marine survival conditions, and some individual spawning populations are at high risk of biological extinction.
"The Steering Committee advises that the forecast of marine survival for 1998 for the Upper and Lower Skeena may be overly optimistic and caution is advised...The overall Skeena problem is made more serious by the evidence that Upper Skeena survivals in 1997 were even less than those associated with the indicator (the stream used as a model)."
The 46-page report says that the majority of coho streams in the Strait of Georgia and Lower Fraser River areas will not reach the minimum safe escapement of female spawners, and that the stocks are "deteriorating rapidly under current marine survival conditions."
The scientists point out that in the more critical areas where spawning populations are already greatly depressed, extinction risk increases exponentially (at an accelerating speed) with decreasing population size.
"The Subcommittee is certain both that the risk will increase as population sizes fall below their already very low levels, and that the need for corrective action will increase correspondingly."
Only on the west coast of Vancouver Island is there any suggestion that some coho fishing-"exploitation rates of less than 30 percent"-might be allowed with some assurance that minimum escapement of spawners can be expected.
While coho stocks of Georgia Strait and the Lower Fraser are not at the near extinction level of Thompson and Skeena fish, the report warns that any fishing mortality allowed would delay the badly depleted stocks' recovery.
"The Subcommittee emphasizes that the necessary corrective actions will become more stringent," the report says. "As populations decline, the likelihood of the success of these corrective actions will fall. The Subcommittee therefore advises that extreme caution is warranted for this stock aggregate."
"...extreme caution is warranted for this stock aggregate."
In total, this statement from DFO scientists lays key cards out on the table. Mr. Anderson played his first card right in his announcement on May 21 that there was to be zero fishing mortality of the most threatened stocks in 1998.
But the next card is even more critical. It is the actuation-the development and implementation of a plan-that will truly deliver this conservation mandate and actually save the coho. Playing the next cards wrong will result in the West Coast coho going the way of the Atlantic cod.
